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Home arrow Latest News arrow BI Confident Inflation at 3.5 Percent Level in 2018

BI Confident Inflation at 3.5 Percent Level in 2018 PDF Print E-mail
Written by Maizer   
Thursday, 01 February 2018

Bank Indonesia (BI) estimates that inflation in the future is projected to remain at the 2018 inflation target of 3.5% ± 1% (yoy).


Junanto Herdiawan Deputy Director of the BI Communication Department said the coordination of the policy of the Government and Bank Indonesia in controlling inflation will continue to be strengthened.


"The strengthening is mainly to anticipate risks of rising volatile foods inflation as well as possible price adjustment of some commodities in the ministered prices group," he said in Jakarta, Friday (2/2/2018).


It said the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation in January 2018 remained under control within its target range. CPI inflation in January 2018 reached 0.62% (mtm), down from last month's inflation of 0.71% (mtm).


Annually, CPI inflation stood at 3.25% (yoy) or within the targeted inflation target of 2018 of 3.5% ± 1% (yoy). Controlled inflation is mainly influenced by administered prices that are deflation and core inflation being kept under control, amid mounting volatile foods inflation.


Core inflation was maintained at 0.31% (mtm), up from 0.13% (mtm) last month. Some of the components that affect core inflation are gold jewelry, housekeeper's wage, rice with side dishes, and non-foreman workman. Annually, core inflation was recorded at 2.69% (yoy), down from last month's 2.95% (yoy).


The positive development of core inflation is inseparable from the consistency of Bank Indonesia's policy of maintaining exchange rate stability and directing inflation expectations.


The administered prices group experienced deflation as normalization of freight rates after the holiday season. The administered price group experienced deflation of 0.15% (mtm), down from last month's inflation of 0.91% (mtm). Deflation is mainly driven by the normalization of tariffs for aircraft and trains after Christmas and New Year holidays 2018. Annually, the administered prices component recorded inflation at 5.82% (yoy).


Inflation in the volatile foods category from last month was mainly driven by rice prices. Volatile food inflation was recorded at 2.58% (mtm), an increase compared to last month's 2.46% (mtm). This inflation rate is higher than the average of volatile foods inflation in January last four years at 1.63% (mtm). Inflation is mainly sourced from rice commodities, chicken meat, fresh fish, cayenne pepper, and red pepper. Annually, volatile foods inflation stood at 2.62% (yoy).



BI Yakin Inflasi Pada Level 3,5 Persen di 2018


Bank Indonesia (BI) memperkirakan, ke depan inflasi diperkirakan tetap berada pada sasaran inflasi 2018, yaitu 3,5%±1% (yoy).


Junanto Herdiawan Deputi Direktur Departemen Komunikasi BI mengatakan, koordinasi kebijakan Pemerintah dan Bank Indonesia dalam mengendalikan inflasi akan terus diperkuat.


"Penguatan terutama sebagai antisipasi risiko meningkatnya inflasi volatile food serta kemungkinan penyesuaian harga beberapa komoditas di kelompokadministered prices," kata dia di Jakarta, Jumat (2/2/2018).


Dikatakan, inflasi Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) pada Januari 2018 tetap terkendali dalam kisaran sasarannya. Inflasi IHK pada Januari 2018 mencapai 0,62% (mtm), menurun dibandingkan dengan inflasi bulan lalu sebesar 0,71% (mtm).


Secara tahunan, inflasi IHK tercatat 3,25% (yoy) atau berada dalam kisaran sasaran inflasi 2018 sebesar 3,5%±1% (yoy). Terkendalinya inflasi dipengaruhi terutama oleh administered prices  yang deflasi dan inflasi inti yang tetap terkendali, di tengah inflasi volatile food yang meningkat.


Inflasi inti tetap terjaga tercatat sebesar 0,31% (mtm), meningkat dibandingkan bulan lalu sebesar 0,13% (mtm). Beberapa komponen yang memengaruhi inflasi inti ialah emas perhiasan, upah pembantu rumah tangga, nasi dengan lauk, dan tukang bukan mandor. Secara tahunan, inflasi inti tercatat sebesar 2,69% (yoy), melambat dari bulan lalu sebesar 2,95% (yoy).


Perkembangan positif inflasi inti tidak terlepas dari konsistensi kebijakan Bank Indonesia dalam menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar dan mengarahkan ekspektasi inflasi.


Kelompok administered prices mengalami deflasi seiring normalisasi tarif angkutan setelah musim liburan. Kelompok administered price mengalami deflasi sebesar 0,15% (mtm), menurun dibandingkan bulan lalu yang mengalami inflasi sebesar 0,91% (mtm). Deflasi terutama didorong oleh normalisasi tarif pesawat udara dan kereta api pasca libur Natal dan Tahun Baru 2018. Secara tahunan, komponen administered prices mencatat inflasi sebesar 5,82% (yoy).


Inflasi kelompok volatile foodmeningkat dari bulan lalu terutama didorong oleh harga beras. Inflasi volatile food tercatat sebesar 2,58% (mtm), meningkat dibandingkan dengan kondisi bulan lalu sebesar 2,46% (mtm). Angka inflasi ini lebih tinggi dari rata-rata inflasi volatile food bulan Januari empat tahun terakhir sebesar 1,63% (mtm). Inflasi terutama bersumber dari komoditas beras, daging ayam ras, ikan segar, cabai rawit, dan cabai merah. Secara tahunan, inflasi volatile food tercatat 2,62% (yoy).

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