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Home arrow Latest News arrow Trade Wars Can not Be Avoided


				
			
			
Trade Wars Can not Be Avoided PDF Print E-mail
Written by Maizer   
Friday, 20 July 2018

Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs, Darmin Nasution, said that the global economic condition in the middle of trade war is inevitable. Given this condition, according to Darmin, Indonesia can not help should be able to respond and adjust.

 

"We can not avoid the name of a trade war that ultimately affects the exchange rate, the exchange rate, both the capital flows are inevitably affected, so we ourselves in the country can not help (have to adjust)," said Darmin met in the commemoration of the day the 52nd anniversary of the Ministry of Economic Affairs at the Office of the Coordinating Ministry for Economic Affairs, Gambir, Central Jakarta, Sunday, July 22, 2018.

 

The condition of the global economy is now turbulent after a trade war between America and China. Trade war involving two countries with the largest economy in the world also affect the domestic economy of Indonesia. Especially with regard to export and import balance and interest rate.

 

According to Darmin, Indonesia should respond but not necessarily in a hurry. Because if in a hurry, it could also encourage the collapse of the multilateral global trade regime, especially after the United States to take steps that do not follow the standard of global trading.

 

Darmin said to overcome the conditions of trade war between America and China, Indonesia must first maintain its trade balance. According to him, Indonesia's current trade balance is still deficit of US $ 1.03 billion.

 

"If the total balance of our trade balance is not too large US $ 1.03 billion, but if the oil and gas only see how the deficit, US $ 5.4 billion Non oil and gas surplus, but only US $ 4.4 billion. overcome, "said Darmin.

 

To overcome this deficit, Darmin said, the government has decided to accelerate the implementation of B20 policy for bio diesel. He said if this policy can be implemented 90 percent of Indonesia can save foreign exchange through the reduction of oil and gas imports that can cover the deficit.

 

Even so, Darmin stated that this policy can not be done in the next few months. He hopes that in the next 6 months the policy can run full B20 (90 percent) to make surplus oil and gas trade balance.

 

In addition, Darmin said, the government also needs to maintain the stability of the rupiah in the midst of unstable world economic conditions due to trade wars. Not only that, the government also needs to keep foreign capital flow so that foreign investment is interested.

 

Chairman of the Indonesian Employers Association (Apindo) Haryadi Sukamdani said, Indonesia would be affected by negative impact. "Moreover, we have a good relationship with the two countries, there must be an impact," he said.

 

Haryadi explained, the US imposed high import tariffs for countries that do more exports than imports from the US. Therefore, the US took such measures to overcome its country deficit. "Indonesia is actually also exposed to the imposition of high import tariffs Trump, but baseball as high as China, so baseball is too excited like China and the US," he added.

 

He revealed that the industrial sector that also felt the impact of the US-China trade war is one of the textile industry. He said that currently the US Generalized System of Preference (GSP) facility on Indonesian textile products has been revoked.

 

"Of course we feel the impact, one of which our textile products to the US is GSP has been revoked.This makes the price of textiles in the US can not compete with other textile products," he said.

 

In addition, a rift between China and the United States will make both countries seek new markets to distribute products that should be exported to China or the US.

 

"China, for example, is exporting textiles to the United States, but because of this high import tariffs China will not export to the US anymore, they need new markets.Indonesia can be one of its new target markets.This could make our textile products also lose competitiveness, "he said.

 

Even so, Haryadi said, Indonesia can feel the positive impact of trade wars that occurred between the two. Although there are very few possibilities, he said Indonesia could also take the opportunity to replace some of the products needed by both countries.

 

"China imposes expensive tariffs on imported soybeans, surely they are looking for other alternatives to meet the needs of vegetable oil from soybeans, so Indonesia can replace it with CPO (Crude Palm Oil)," he concluded.

 

Perang Dagang Tak Bisa Dihindari

 

Menteri Koordinator (Menko) Bidang Perekonomian, Darmin Nasution mengatakan kondisi perekonomian global yang tengah mengalami perang dagang tak bisa dihindari. Dengan adanya kondisi ini, menurut Darmin, tidak bisa tidak Indonesia harus mampu merespon dan menyesuaikan.

 

"Kita tidak bisa menghindari yang namanya perang dagang yang ujung-ujungnya itu pasti mempengaruhi kurs, nilai tukar. Kedua arus modal itu pasti terpengaruh, sehingga kita sendiri di dalam negeri mau tidak mau (harus menyesuaikan)," kata Darmin ditemui dalam acara peringatan hari ulang tahun ke-52 Kementerian Perekonomian di Kantor Kemenko Perekonomian, Gambir, Jakarta Pusat, Ahad, 22 Juli 2018.

 

Kondisi perekonomian global kini tengah bergejolak usai terjadinya perang dagang antara Amerika dengan Cina. Perang dagang yang melibatkan dua negara dengan ekonomi terbesar di dunia tersebut turut mempengaruhi perekonomian domestik Indonesia. Terutama mengenai neraca ekspor maupun impor dan tingkat suku bunga acuan.

 

Menurut Darmin, Indonesia harus merespons namun tidak perlu tergesa-gesa.  Sebab jika terburu-buru, justru bisa ikut mendorong runtuhnya rezim multilateral perdagangan global, terutama setelah Amerika melakukan langkah yang tidak mengikuti pakem perdagangan global.

 

Darmin mengatakan untuk mengatasi kondisi perang dagang antara Amerika dan Cina, Indonesia terlebih dahulu harus menjaga neraca perdaganganya. Menurut dia, saat ini neraca perdagangan Indonesia masih defisit US$ 1,03 miliar.

 

"Kalau secara total neraca dagang kita defisitnya tidak terlalu besar US$ 1,03 miliar. Tetapi kalau dilihat migas saja berapa defisitnya, US$ 5,4 miliar. Non migas surplus, tapi hanya US$ 4,4 miliar. Itu yang kita harus atasi," kata Darmin.

 

Untuk mengatasi defisit ini, kata Darmin, pemerintah telah memutuskan mempercepat pelaksanaan kebijakan B20 untuk bio diesel. Ia berujar jika kebijakan ini bisa terlaksana 90 persen saja Indonesia bisa menghemat devisa lewat pengurangan impor migas sehingga bisa menutup defisit.

 

Meski demikan, Darmin menyatakan kebijakan ini tak bisa bisa lakukan dalam beberapa bulan ke depan. Ia berharap dalam 6 bulan ke depan kebijakan inu bisa berjalan penuh B20 (90 persen) membuat neraca perdagangan migas surplus.

 

Selain itu, Darmin menyatakan, pemerintah juga perlu menjaga stabilitas nilai tukar rupiah di tengah kondisi ekonomi dunia yang tak stabil akibat perang dagang. Tak hanya itu, pemerintah juga perlu menjaga arus modal asing supaya investasi asing tertarik.

 

 

Ketua Umum Asosiasi Pengusaha Indonesia (Apindo) Haryadi Sukamdani mengatakan, Indonesia pasti akan terkena imbas negatifnya. "Apalagi kita berhubungan baik dengan kedua negara tersebut. Pasti ada dampaknya," katanya.

 

Haryadi menjelaskan, AS memberlakukan tarif impor tinggi bagi negara-negara yang lebih banyak melakukan ekspor dibanding impor dari AS. Karenanya, AS mengambil tindakan tersebut untuk mengatasi defisit negaranya. "Indonesia sebenarnya juga terkena pengenaan tarif impor tinggi Trump, tapi enggak setinggi China. Makanya enggak terlalu heboh seperti China dan AS," tambahnya.

 

Dia mengungkapkan, sektor industri yang turut merasakan dampak dari perang dagang AS-China ini salah satunya industri tekstil. Dia mengatakan, saat ini fasilitas Generalised System of Preference (GSP) dari AS terhadap produk tekstil Indonesia sudah dicabut.

 

"Tentu kita merasakan betul dampaknya. Salah satunya produk tekstil kita ke AS itu GSP nya sudah dicabut. Hal ini membuat harga tekstil di AS tidak bisa bersaing dengan produk tekstil lainnya," ujar dia.

 

Selain itu, bersitegang antara China dan AS akan membuat kedua negara ini mencari pasar baru untuk mendistribusikan produk yang harusnya di ekspor ke China atau AS.

 

"China misalnya, dia mengekspor tekstil ke AS, tapi karena ada pengenaan tarif impor yang tinggi ini kan China enggak akan ekspor ke AS lagi, mereka butuh pasar baru. Indonesia bisa jadi salah satu pasar baru sasarannya. Hal ini bisa membuat produk tekstil kita juga kalah saing," katanya.

 

Meski begitu, Haryadi menuturkan, Indonesia bisa merasakan dampak positif dari perang dagang yang terjadi di antara keduanya. Walau hanya sedikit kemungkinannya, dia mengatakan, Indonesia juga bisa mengambil peluang untuk menggantikan beberapa produk yang dibutuhkan kedua negara tersebut.

 

"China mengenakan tarif impor kedelai mahal, pasti mereka mencari alternatif lain untuk memenuhi kebutuhan minyak nabati dari kedelai. Nah, Indonesia bisa menggantikannya dengan CPO (Crude Palm Oil)," tutupnya.

 
		
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