If Basic Electricity Tariff Rises, Inflation Swells Up to 4.2 Percent
Written by Maizer   
Thursday, 08 February 2018

Basic Electricity Tariff Increases, Inflation is expected to swell to 4.2 percent. That happens when the government realizes adjusting the Basic Electricity Tariff (TDL) formula. In fact, it passes the government's inflation target of 3.5 percent on an annual basis (year on year / yoy) this year. At least Economist from Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara's Institute for Development of Economics and Finance estimates that inflation will swell to around 4.2 percent if there is an increase in TDL this year.

 

"Our projection, inflation without any tariff adjustment at the end of the year could reach 3.6 percent. Moreover, plus electricity rises, inflation could be above 4.2 percent, "Bhima said recently.

 

According to him, inflation will be hoisted high because the impact of electricity tariff increase is almost equal to the effect of rising food prices, which contributes up to 2.5 percent to 3 percent in inflation. That way, automatically when the electricity tariff is raised, inflation is high. Because, he said, just now, the share of food inflation is still overshadowing the overall inflation rate, one of them because of the influence of rice prices that had skyrocketed earlier this year. This can affect the ability or purchasing power of the community.

 

"With the rising price of rice, chicken pieces, and chicken eggs the impact to the community will automatically reduce spending," he said.

 

In addition, the impact of an increase in electricity tariffs on inflation swelling, can be seen from the reflection of inflation early last year. In January 2017, inflation was in the range of 0.97 percent on a monthly basis (month to month / mtm) and 3.49 percent (yoy), in which one was due to the electricity tariff adjustment for 900 voltampere (VA) power customers.

 

 

Therefore, the government is asked not to raise electricity tariffs in the near future. In fact, until the end of this year to really restore people's purchasing power while keeping inflation ahead of time. According to him, the way out can be done is to bear the difference in economic tariffs and tariffs that people must pay using the State Budget (APBN) 2018.

 

Therefore, on the one hand, it is not burdensome to the finance of PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) or PLN which is actually mandated to bail out the economic tariff and paid by the community. "As compensation for PLN's finance is not disturbed, the government can inject more budget ( to PLN), "he concluded.

 

With this in mind, it is expected that electricity tariffs for the public will not rise, the purchasing power of the public will be maintained, and the government's inflation target can still be achieved within the expected range.

 

 

In different places, the Indonesian Textile Association (API) assessed that the electricity tariff increase could potentially undermine the productivity of the textile sector and its derivative products. Therefore, the use of electricity in the process of textile production is large enough, so that many producers will not be strong bear the burden of operating costs are soaring high.

 

General Chairman of API Ade Sudrajat said, many textile industry that closed last year only because of not strong bear the burden of electricity is more expensive. According to Ade, the electricity load in the upstream textile industry ranges from 25 percent to 28 percent of the total production cost component.

 

Meanwhile, the electricity load in the spinning and weaving industries is respectively 18 to 25 percent and 15 to 22 percent of total production costs. However, he did not mention in detail the number of closed textile companies because they are still inventoried. "If the tariff is going to rise, so more companies will be closed. Last year there were many who were closed because of electricity, and this is our inventory, "explained Ade

 

Jika Tarif Dasar Listrik Naik, Inflasi Bengkak Hingga 4,2 Persen

 

Tarif Dasar Listrik Naik, Inflasi diperkirakan bakal membengkak hingga 4,2 persen. Itu terjadi ketika pemerintah merealisasikan menyesuaikan formula Tarif Dasar Listrik (TDL). Bahkan, melewati target inflasi pemerintah sebesar 3,5 persen secara tahunan (year on year/yoy) pada tahun ini. Setidaknya Ekonom dari Institute for Development of Economics and Finance (Indef) Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara mengestimasi, inflasi akan bengkak ke kisaran 4,2 persen bila ada kenaikan TDL pada tahun ini.

 

“Proyeksi kami, inflasi tanpa ada penyesuaian tarif listrik di akhir tahun bisa mencapai 3,6 persen. Apalagi, ditambah listrik naik, inflasi bisa di atas 4,2 persen,” kata Bhima belum lama ini.

 

Menurutnya, inflasi akan terkerek tinggi lantaran dampak kenaikan tarif listrik hampir sama dengan pengaruh dari kenaikan harga pangan, yaitu memberikan andil hingga 2,5 persen sampai 3 persen pada inflasi. Dengan begitu, otomatis ketika tarif listrik dinaikkan, inflasi terkerek tinggi. Sebab, kata dia, saat ini saja, andil inflasi pangan masih membayangi laju inflasi secara keseluruhan, salah satunya karena pengaruh harga beras yang sempat meroket pada awal tahun ini. Hal ini bisa berpengaruh ke kemampuan atau daya beli masyarakat.

 

“Dengan naiknya harga beras, ayam potong, dan telur ayam saja dampak ke masyarakat otomatis akan kurangi belanja,” katanya.

 

Selain itu, dampak kenaikan tarif listrik terhadap bengkaknya infasi, bisa terlihat dari cerminan inflasi awal tahun lalu. Pada Januari 2017, inflasi berada di kisaran 0,97 persen secara bulanan (month to month/mtm) dan 3,49 persen (yoy), di mana salah satunya karena penyesuaian tarif listrik bagi pelanggan listrik berkapasitas 900 voltampere (VA).

 

 

Untuk itu, pemerintah diminta tak menaikkan tarif listrik dalam waktu dekat. Bahkan, hingga akhir tahun ini untuk benar-benar memulihkan daya beli masyarakat sekaligus menjaga inflasi lebih dulu. Menurut dia, jalan keluar yang bisa dilakukan adalah dengan menanggung selisih tarif keekonomian dan tarif yang harus dibayar masyarakat menggunakan Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara (APBN) 2018.

 

Maka itu, di satu sisi juga tidak memberatkan keuangan PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (Persero) atau PLN yang justru diberi mandat untuk menalangi selisih tarif keekonomian dan yang dibayarka masyarakat.”Sebagai kompensasi agar keuangan PLN tidak terganggu, maka pemerintah bisa menyuntikan anggaran lebih besar (ke PLN),” pungkasnya.

 

Dengan hal ini, diharapkan tarif listrik bagi masyarakat tidak naik, daya beli masyarakat terjaga, dan target inflasi pemerintah tetap bisa tercapai dalam kisaran yang diharapkan.

 

 

Di tempat berbeda, Asosiasi Pertekstilan Indonesia (API) menilai kenaikan tarif listrik berpotensi menggerus produktivitas sektor tekstil dan produk turunannya. Sebab, penggunaan listrik dalam proses produksi tekstil cukup besar, sehingga banyak produsen yang tidak akan kuat menanggung beban biaya operasional yang melonjak tinggi.

 

Ketua Umum API Ade Sudrajat mengatakan, sudah banyak industri tekstil yang tutup tahun lalu hanya gara-gara tidak kuat menanggung beban listrik yang semakin mahal. Menurut Ade, beban listrik di industri hulu tekstil berkisar antara 25 persen hingga 28 persen dari total komponen ongkos produksi.

 

Sementara itu, beban listrik di industri pemintalan dan pertenunan masing-masing tercatat 18 hingga 25 persen dan 15 hingga 22 persen dari total biaya produksi. Hanya saja, ia tidak menyebut secara rinci jumlah perusahaan tekstil yang tutup karena masih diinventarisasi.“Kalau memang tarifnya bakal naik, ya makin banyak perusahaan yang tutup. Tahun lalu sudah banyak yang tutup gara-gara listrik, dan ini sedang kami inventarisasi,” jelas Ade

 
		
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